Tigray Forces Seize Airports and Push Into Afar as Ethiopia Slides Back Toward Full War
Ethiopian Airlines halted flights to the region after Tigrayan fighters took its airports, and a Tigrayan official says localized strikes became a "full war" within 24 hours. The last Tigray war killed an estimated 600,000 people.
Ethiopia is sliding back toward a devastating war in its northern Tigray region. Tigrayan forces have seized the region's airports, and fighting has spread into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, according to both Ethiopian officials and Tigrayan authorities.
Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Tigray after the airports were taken. In Afar, clashes were reported around the towns of Abala and Erebti, and local reports said Tigrayan fighters had captured Abala, a district capital. Abdisalam Balema, an official of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, said what began as localized strikes had turned into a "full war" within 24 hours.
Each side blames the other. Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and a former TPLF leader himself, accused Tigrayan forces of launching an "all-out offensive" against government positions in Afar and Amhara early Wednesday. Tigrayan authorities say their forces were responding defensively to attacks by federal troops. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project says Ethiopian forces have carried out drone strikes on Tigrayan fighters and TPLF officials in recent months, concentrated in the regional capital, Mekelle, and in southern Tigray.
The escalation came days after the TPLF announced on Sunday that it had formed an alliance with six other armed and political groups to remove Abiy's government and set up a transitional administration. The coalition, called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, brings together groups that were once on opposite sides, including the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army. It also includes movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz areas. Ethiopia is already battling Fano insurgents in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia.
The TPLF and the federal government fought a two-year war that ended with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022. It was one of the deadliest conflicts of recent decades, and some estimates put the death toll at about 600,000. The deal has frayed for months. In May, the TPLF reasserted control over Tigray's regional government after years under an interim administration created by the agreement.
"The very big question next is how will the federal government respond?" said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group. "With total all out war? Or will we see a more measured response that tries to contain this and prevent a return to total war in Tigray?" Boswell warned that the fighting could draw in neighboring Eritrea, which he said is backing the TPLF. "If this war expands there is major risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea," he said.
Diplomats moved quickly to contain the damage. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, called for "immediate de-escalation" and urged both sides to return to talks. The regional bloc IGAD and the United Nations also voiced alarm. The U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, Ervin J. Massinga, condemned what he called the TPLF's "poor decision to launch a large-scale offensive," describing it as an "unwinnable fight." Ethiopia is Africa's second-most populous country, and a new war there would add to a region already reeling from Sudan's civil war, which has raged next door for more than three years.
