NPR Analysis: Both Parties Pour Money Into 90-Plus House Districts as Midterms Near

With just under a month until Election Day, financial decisions by both parties suggest the question is no longer whether Democrats take the House but how large their majority may be, according to an NPR analysis of campaign targets, ad reservations and outside spending. Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 advantage.

The Cook Political Report now lists 43 districts as competitive, including 22 toss-ups. In February 2025, its first ratings of the cycle showed 39 competitive races and 18 toss-ups. But NPR found that hundreds of millions of dollars from party committees and Trump-aligned super PACs are being committed in more than 90 districts in the closing weeks, a much larger map than the toss-up list implies.

The political environment is far from 2024. President Trump's unpopularity has reached record highs, with the share of voters who strongly disapprove of his job performance higher than at any point in either of his terms. Voters are unhappy with the war in Iran, rising gas prices, tariffs and immigration enforcement. A wave of anti-incumbent sentiment has produced a record number of congressional retirement announcements, and several sitting lawmakers lost primaries this year.

Mid-decade redistricting scrambled the map further, with new lines affecting an estimated 1 in 10 registered voters. Republican-led legislatures in states such as Texas and Florida drew maps to win more seats at Trump's urging, and Democrats countered in California. Polling from Strength in Numbers/Verasight shared with NPR shows Trump's approval is lower than average in newly drawn districts in South Florida and along the Texas-Mexico border, including TX-28 and FL-25. In North Carolina's 1st District, Democratic Rep. Don Davis's seat became more conservative, but a Senate race in which polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper leading has made it competitive. More than $20 million in ad reservations are set there.

Sixty districts are priorities for both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee, along with Trump-aligned groups like No Going Back. On average they voted for Trump by 8 points in 2024. The DCCC's battlefield includes more than 90 districts: 46 "Red to Blue" flip targets, 26 "Frontline" incumbents and 19 "Districts in Play." The NRCC lists 17 "Patriots" and 27 "MAGA Majority" candidates. In Kentucky's 6th District, which Trump won by 15 points, both parties and Trump-aligned PACs have spent millions. In Arkansas' 2nd, also a Trump +15 seat, outside spending against Democrat Chris Jones helped push the DCCC to add the race to Red to Blue.

Target lists are often broader than the outcomes. From 2012 to 2024, Democrats won 34 percent of their targeted districts and Republicans 29 percent, according to Ballotpedia. Some money is already being pulled back. Republicans have halted spending in the North Carolina Senate race and redirected funds to Kansas, and ad reservations have been cancelled in Nebraska's open 2nd District. Even so, AdImpact data shows close to half a billion dollars in ad reservations through Election Day, a sign that neither party is taking anything for granted.