Democrats Are Favored to Flip the House as 70 Districts Draw Six-Figure Ad Spending
An NPR analysis of final-week ad buys finds the fight is less about stopping a Democratic wave than about how high it crests, with Republicans' 218-214 majority at risk.
With five days left before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the money flowing into House races suggests the central question is no longer whether Democrats can take control of the chamber, but by how much. An NPR analysis of final-week advertising data finds that the competitive landscape is unusually wide, including 70 districts where both parties are spending at least six figures on closing messages.
Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 edge in the House. In a midterm environment that tends to punish the party in power, that majority appears all but certain to give way to Democratic control. The latest ratings from the Cook Political Report show Democrats favored in 220 seats, with 17 more rated as toss-ups and another 30 that are potentially competitive but lean Republican. A majority takes 218 seats.
The most expensive contests are Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District, each with more than $12 million in planned spending. Toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York and Florida are each drawing more than $10 million. Florida's 14th, 22nd and 25th districts, New York's 17th, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd also rank among the priciest. Seven-figure ad buys have appeared in deep-red communities across Tennessee, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
The 70 races where both parties are making six-figure investments voted for President Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. Sixty districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms, which NPR says highlights the effect of the administration's unpopularity over the past year. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll gives Democrats a 10-point advantage among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot, and 8 points among likely voters.
The map has also been scrambled by mid-decade redistricting that followed a Supreme Court decision rolling back part of the Voting Rights Act. Republicans redrew lines to add more conservative voters to districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Don Davis of North Carolina, Shomari Figures of Alabama and Darren Soto of Florida. Democrats responded in California, redrawing the districts held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa, and independent Rep. Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto sit in districts now rated as favoring Republicans.
Some of the clearest signs of Democratic strength come from places where Republicans are pulling back. Of the 10 districts that voted for one party for president and the other for the House in 2024, most have shifted toward Democrats. In four of them, held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray of California, Nellie Pou of New Jersey and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and the seat of retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, Republicans have cut their ad reservations in recent weeks, according to AdImpact.
Voters say cost of living is their top concern, with rising gas prices, tariffs and the ongoing war in Iran adding to economic worries. A record number of congressional retirement announcements, amplified by an anti-incumbency streak in the primaries, has opened more seats. Millions of Americans have already voted.
Not every race will end up close. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Districts In Play" gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little or no ad spending from either party. Even so, the breadth of the spending shows both parties still fighting for seats across a wide map in the final days.
