Rep. Mike Lawler Tries to Outrun a Blue Wave in New York's Toss-Up 17th District

ROCKLAND COUNTY, N.Y. — At Sparky's Diner in Garnerville, about an hour outside New York City, owner Jeannie Nicolakis says her congressman is "like my own son." That kind of loyalty is what Rep. Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican, is counting on in one of the closest House races in the country.

New York's 17th district covers commuter towns and suburbs along the Hudson River Valley. Lawler's ability to hold it could help decide whether Republicans keep their narrow House majority. He faces Democrat Cait Conley, a military veteran and former counterterrorism official in the Biden administration, who is trying to peel away parts of the coalition that elected Lawler in 2022 and 2024. With less than a month until Election Day, Democratic- and Republican-aligned groups have together spent more than $40 million on advertising in the race, according to NPR.

The national mood is not helping him. Polls show voters are more likely to choose Democrats over Republicans when asked which party's candidate they would back in their district, and President Donald Trump continues to battle historically low approval ratings. A majority of Americans say they strongly disapprove of his job performance, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

Lawler's answer is to stress local issues and moments when he broke with his party. He opposed the administration's decision to end a policy that shielded nearly 350,000 Haitian migrants from deportation, and says he got the White House to temporarily extend their work authorizations, though that extension has since expired. He also touts his push to raise the state and local tax deduction, the SALT cap, a major issue for his constituents and a flash point in the negotiations over Trump's massive tax and spending bill. But Lawler ultimately cast a deciding vote for that bill, and critics say parts of it, notably sizable cuts to federal health care funds, have hurt voters.

He has not run away from the president either. "The truth is that the president and I don't always agree, and that's okay. After all, we're both New Yorkers," Lawler said in his September address at the Republican National Convention. "What I learned about President Trump behind closed doors is that if you're willing to make your case and fight for what you believe in, he's willing to listen."

Voters outside the diner are split on whether they can separate him from his party. At a fall festival in Armonk, in more liberal Westchester County, parent Brett Silverstein cited high gas and diesel prices and said he used to vote Republican but dislikes Trump. "He's supported Trump and kind of the whole 'MAGA train' over the past 2 to 4 years," he said of Lawler. Some voters who first backed Lawler in 2022 have drifted away, including a self-described moderate, Mike Monroe, who voted against him in 2024 and for Kamala Harris.

Lawler, walking a county firefighters' parade and stopping for selfies, said he is confident. "Look, all politics is local," he said. "My constituents know who I am." He argued that voters motivated only by dislike of Trump have every right to that view, but that most care about policy solutions and his record. Whether that argument can beat the cost of living and the national climate is the question the district will answer on Nov. 3.