Isaias Becomes First Atlantic Hurricane of 2026 as Gulf Coast Braces for Landfall

Isaias strengthened into a hurricane Wednesday night, becoming the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season, and is spinning toward the southeastern United States, according to the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters expect the storm to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday afternoon, with landfall possible late Friday or early Saturday.

As of Thursday morning, Isaias was about 385 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving east-northeast at 9 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were 80 mph. A hurricane warning covers a wide stretch of coastline, from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the area around Mexico Beach, Florida. Storm surge alerts cover an even larger area.

The surge is one of the biggest dangers. If its peak coincides with high tide, the National Hurricane Center says water could reach five to seven feet along the coast from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, Florida. The center also predicts as much as 10 inches of rain in some places, with 3 to 7 inches possible from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the weekend.

The storm's rapid growth surprised forecasters. After becoming a tropical storm on Tuesday, Isaias moved over a part of the Gulf of Mexico where conditions are very favorable for intensification, with sea surface temperatures around 87 degrees. Warm water feeds tropical storms and loads them with moisture. Recent forecasts have raised predictions for the storm's power because of those conditions. Forecast models are also somewhat divided on the timing of a turn toward the northeast on Thursday and Friday, and that timing will determine exactly where the storm comes ashore.

Isaias ends an extraordinary four-month stretch with no Atlantic hurricanes since the season opened on June 1. "While we anticipated a well below-average season this year, it's certainly been surprising to see just how quiet it has been," Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, told NPR. He said only three hurricane seasons on record, going back to 1851, have gone without a hurricane through October 7, though some early storms may have been missed before aircraft reconnaissance and satellites.

The quiet is widely attributed to a Super El Niño, a climate pattern that makes powerful ocean storms less likely in the Atlantic and far more likely in the Pacific. In an average year, the Atlantic would have seen at least five hurricanes by now, the hurricane center says. El Niño's suppressing effect is weaker in the Gulf of Mexico than in the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach said, and Isaias formed with help from a cyclonic gyre that can spawn storms on either side of Central America. The same system is responsible for Tropical Depression 20E in the Pacific.

There is one piece of better news. Isaias is expected to move quickly over land after it makes landfall rather than stalling over areas that are already waterlogged. "Isaias will be moving quickly as it comes onshore, which should hopefully reduce the chances for catastrophic flooding," Klotzbach said. He added that the storm will still bring dangerous amounts of rain. Residents along the Gulf Coast should follow local emergency officials and the National Hurricane Center's advisories as the track firms up.