Lowell Will Pass West of Kauai on Monday Night With 120 MPH Winds and 14 Inches of Rain

Hurricane Lowell is forecast to pass just west of the main Hawaiian Islands late Monday night as a major hurricane, and forecasters have put Kauai County under a tropical storm warning with the heaviest rain totals of the storm aimed at Kauai and Niihau.

As of Sunday, Lowell was a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds near 120 mph, centered roughly 545 miles south-southwest of Kauai and crawling north at about 6 mph. It had been a Category 5 on Saturday — the first Category 5 in the central Pacific basin since Hurricane Walaka in 2018 — and forecasters expect it to remain a major hurricane through Monday even as it slowly weakens over cooler water.

The track keeps the core offshore, which is the difference between a bad few days and a catastrophe. But the rain does not need a landfall. Niihau and Kauai could see 12 to 14 inches, Kauai as much as 10 inches in the lower elevations, and Maui up to 8 inches. On islands whose valleys funnel water off steep volcanic slopes in a matter of hours, that is enough for flash flooding and mudslides well away from the storm's center. A hurricane warning is in effect for Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, the uninhabited northwestern chain that Lowell will pass closer to.

Surf is the impact nobody in the state will escape. Life-threatening waves are expected along south- and west-facing shorelines Monday and Tuesday, with heights forecast to reach roughly 14 feet, and dangerous conditions extending to Oahu and the Big Island. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible in Kauai County and up to a foot on Oahu.

Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency on Friday and activated 129 Hawaii National Guard members, sending six high-water vehicles to Kauai. State agencies have been securing small-boat harbors, positioning emergency crews and watching dam levels on Kauai, where reservoir failures during heavy rain have killed people before.

Lowell is one of three tropical cyclones that have been active in the Pacific in the past week, alongside Karina and Marie — a simultaneous trio that has been matched only once in the modern record. The eastern and central Pacific season has now produced 15 named storms, running well ahead of an Atlantic season that has yet to generate a single hurricane. Forecasters attribute the split to unusually warm water in the Pacific and the developing El Nino pattern, which suppresses Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear.

The storm is expected to turn north-northwest and slow down by Tuesday evening, pulling away from the islands. Emergency officials have asked residents on Kauai to have a week of supplies on hand, on the assumption that a direct hit on the state's most isolated main island would take days to reach by sea or air.