NBC Poll: Only 1 in 4 Latino Voters Approve of Trump a Month Before Midterms
Nearly 70% of Latino voters disapprove of the president, and Democrats lead the generic ballot among them by 24 points, double their margin two years ago.
A new NBC News/Telemundo poll finds that barely one in four Latino voters approve of President Donald Trump's job performance, with nearly 70% disapproving, a sharp reversal from the gains he made with the group in 2024. The numbers were presented Sunday on "Meet the Press" by NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki, 30 days before the midterm elections.
Kornacki put the shift in historical context. Trump was blown out among Hispanic voters in 2016, lost them by 25 points in 2020, and then nearly battled Kamala Harris to a draw in 2024, one of the best showings ever for a Republican with the group. Latino voters make up more than 10% of the electorate, and Republicans are defending seats with large Hispanic populations in Florida, Texas and elsewhere.
The economy is the main drag. Trump is nearly 50 points underwater among Latino voters on the cost of living, and roughly two-thirds say his economic policies have hurt rather than helped. It arrives alongside a new jobs report that fell short of expectations. "The economy, inflation dragging the president down," Kornacki said. The issue is not limited to Latino voters, he noted. Trump gets low marks across the full electorate on prices.
Immigration, which helped power Trump's wins in 2016 and 2024, is now a liability too. About two-thirds of Latino respondents said his immigration policies have gone too far. The poll found overwhelming support among these voters for deporting undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes, and for a pathway to citizenship for people brought to the country as children. The break comes over maximalist enforcement. Roughly 60% oppose deporting all undocumented immigrants, and opinion of the administration's immigration enforcement is about 60% negative. Nearly a quarter of respondents said they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE.
On the generic congressional ballot, Latino voters favor Democrats by 24 points. Two years ago, when Trump was making his gains, the Democratic edge in NBC's polling was 12 points. Kornacki cautioned that the longer arc is less settled: the poll shows no surge of enthusiasm for the Democratic brand itself. Latino voters now view the Democratic Party slightly more negatively than positively, by a single percentage point. In 2018, they viewed Democrats more positively by 26 points.
Host Kristen Welker noted that Trump has gone back on the trail as voters sour on higher prices. At an Ohio rally, he urged supporters to "pretend I'm running," saying he is effectively on the ballot and warning Democrats would impeach him if they win Congress. Former Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, who appeared on the same program, called the November vote a referendum on the president and said Democrats must still prove they can deliver change rather than simply oppose Trump.
The findings pose a direct threat to Republican incumbents in heavily Hispanic districts. Whether the shift holds through Election Day will depend on whether prices ease and whether the administration changes its approach to immigration enforcement, neither of which looks likely in the next 30 days.
