Thune Fights to Keep a 53-Seat Senate Majority With Trump Tension and an Iran War Weighing on the Map
A week before the midterms, the majority leader campaigns across eight states while a top forecaster rates the GOP's odds of holding the chamber 'at best 50-50.'
SIOUX CITY, Iowa — Less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump rallied in an Iowa airplane hangar, Senate Majority Leader John Thune sat down on October 23 with Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican running for Senate, and six local business owners. Hinson said she would back the president when she agreed with him and be a 'thorn in his side' when she did not. It was one stop in Thune's effort to hold the Senate majority a week before Election Day.
Thune, 65, of South Dakota, has led the chamber for nearly two years. Under him the Senate passed Trump's tax, border and defense agenda, along with bipartisan measures on housing, stablecoins, revenge porn and fentanyl. Colleagues from Sen. Mike Rounds to Sen. Lisa Murkowski praise his character, and Democratic leader Chuck Schumer calls him a 'good and decent American.'
The political environment is difficult. The war with Iran, which began in February, and high gas prices have weighed on Republicans, and most GOP senators voted against Democratic war powers resolutions, a record that now follows them on the campaign trail. Thune has told candidates to run their own campaigns, saying the president 'is going to be a factor in every election.' Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball rates Republican chances of holding the Senate at '50-50 at best.'
The map has had setbacks. A bid to recruit Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp failed. Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in Texas. The Senate Leadership Fund cut spending for Michael Whatley in North Carolina. Republicans did land Mike Rogers in Michigan and Hinson in Iowa, and Thune has campaigned in Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia, Minnesota, South Carolina, Florida, Nebraska and Iowa.
His relationship with Trump has frayed at times. In June, Trump canceled a housing bill signing and demanded passage of the SAVE America Act, which Thune had said lacked the votes, and clashed with Sen. Bill Cassidy at a heated Senate GOP lunch. Thune has defended the legislative filibuster, which Trump wants eliminated. In August, Trump declined to endorse Thune for another term as leader, and in September Thune was booed at a GOP convention in Dallas before Trump defended him. Thune says he expects to seek another term and that the decision belongs to his colleagues.
There is grumbling inside the conference, too. Sen. John Curtis of Utah has criticized colleagues for not addressing affordability, and Sen. John Kennedy called Thune 'too cautious.' Thune rejects that. 'I don't know how you could be more aggressive,' he said.
The margin for error is thin. With a 53-seat majority, Thune can lose only three votes on a party-line matter. Sen. Bernie Moreno summed up the job in blunt terms, saying it 'sucks.' Thune, who lost a 2002 Senate race by fewer than 600 votes before unseating Democratic leader Tom Daschle in 2004, has spent his career in close contests, and he is now in the closest of his time as leader.
