Brazil Votes Sunday in a Dead-Heat Runoff Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazilians vote Sunday in a presidential runoff that could prolong the career of a political giant or usher in a new generation of a political dynasty. Left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, and many polls put the race within the margin of error.

Voter energy has surged in the final days, NPR reported from Rio de Janeiro. Rallies for each candidate have drawn tens of thousands of people in major cities and packed plazas and university campuses nationwide. Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of voting on Oct. 4 and currently leads in polls, though some surveys show the gap narrowing in recent days. A survey released Wednesday found that 10% of voters were still open to changing their minds, leaving room for a last-minute surprise.

Lula, 80, is running for his fourth nonconsecutive term and says it will be his last election. He first took office in 2003, fell out of favor with many voters in the 2010s when he was embroiled in a corruption scandal and jailed, and later saw his convictions annulled on procedural grounds. He narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. The elder Bolsonaro is under house arrest while serving a sentence for plotting to overturn that election result. His son, who is 45, has pledged to pardon him if elected.

A Bolsonaro victory would extend his family's influence over the Brazilian right, which in previous decades was dominated by more moderate figures. A close ally of President Trump, he would also reinforce a broader rightward shift across much of Latin America, where conservative candidates have made gains in recent elections. His other proposals include trimming the size of the Brazilian state to boost economic growth, and that became a flashpoint in the first televised debate last Sunday night. "Have you seen how things are going in Argentina, and are you going to keep saying that Milei is your model?" Lula asked, referring to Argentine President Javier Milei's austerity program and the country's rising poverty rate.

Bolsonaro made crime his central message, promising an aggressive crackdown on organized crime. "I will give you back the streets so that you can walk in safety," he told voters. Many Brazilians rank crime as a top election issue. "Security is awful," said Marli Alves, a 63-year-old prison worker in Rio de Janeiro who supports Bolsonaro. "You can be at an outdoor event and someone sweeps through and robs you of everything."

Lula's supporters describe the stakes differently. Camila Sixel, a 40-year-old corporate event planner campaigning for Lula in Rio, said Bolsonaro's first-place finish gave the campaign "a new feeling of urgency." She said she is worried about "the future for women, the fight against racism and social inequality, and the protection of vulnerable people."

The final days have also brought protests outside Meta's São Paulo offices. Lula's campaign has accused the company of unfairly restricting his content, potentially giving his rival an advantage. Meta denies it. "We do not suppress content to harm one side, nor do we give preferential treatment to any side," the company said in a statement, while acknowledging technical issues in handling election-related content in Brazil. Meta's Oversight Board and a group of U.N. experts have also raised concerns about how political content is handled.

In a race this tight, distortions on social media and turnout on Election Day could decide the outcome.