Putin Says There Is 'a Chance' of a Ukraine Deal. Chicago Wheat Fell 2% the Same Afternoon.

Vladimir Putin told an economic forum in Russia's far east this week that there is "a chance" of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, and that a number of countries — the United States and China among them — are ready to support a settlement. It was the most forward-leaning thing the Russian president has said about ending the war in months, and it landed after four and a half years of fighting and more than six months of diplomatic silence.

Putin was careful not to promise anything. He said it was difficult to judge how much the current contacts were actually leading anywhere, given recent statements from Ukraine's leadership, and he complained about Ukrainian strikes on merchant vessels and aircraft, which he cast as an obstacle to talks. But he confirmed something that had only been rumored: "Contacts do exist and are continuing on an ongoing basis," he said, adding that they run primarily through intelligence channels rather than through diplomats.

Kyiv did not dismiss it. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said he expected "a new dynamic in the peace efforts" and told reporters to follow the news, declining to spell out any negotiating position. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said American negotiators working on a deal would soon travel to both Moscow and Kyiv. The last substantive round of talks was in February, mediated by the United States, and it produced nothing that held.

Commodity traders reacted before the politicians did. Chicago wheat futures fell more than 2% on the comments, on the reasoning that a de-escalation would ease the risk premium sitting on Black Sea grain shipments. Russia and Ukraine together account for a large share of global wheat exports, and the contract has moved on Ukraine headlines since 2022.

None of the underlying conditions have changed. Both militaries have escalated since February, not wound down. Long-range strikes have intensified on both sides and the maritime war has widened. A Ukrainian strike on Belgorod killed four people on Wednesday, including two medical workers, according to Russian officials. Zelenskyy has separately ordered an investigation into a shootout between two Ukrainian security agencies over the disputed detention of a Russian nationalist activist by the SBU.

The diplomatic ground around the war is also shifting in ways that cut against Kyiv. Slovakia this week refused to sign off on a 12-month extension of European Union sanctions against Russia, leaving it the sole holdout among member states. President Donald Trump said he intends to ask European governments to repay the United States for military aid sent to Ukraine, and signaled he may halt some munitions sales to allies. Putin, for his part, used the same appearance to call for a full restoration of relations between Washington and Moscow — which is not a concession, and is closer to a price.