CBS Poll Finds Texas Senate Race Between Paxton and Talarico Essentially Tied

The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is essentially tied, and the outcome in the closing weeks now turns on turnout, according to a new CBS News/YouGov poll.

Paxton benefits from the state's overall Republican lean, while Talarico is helped by voters' economic worries and by higher marks for the personal character to serve as senator. More Democrats than Republicans also say they will definitely vote, which helps Talarico. That could change if more Republicans decide to turn out, leaving the race, in the poll's framing, very much up for grabs.

Cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say higher prices have hurt them. Among those voters, Talarico holds a sizable lead over Paxton. Personal qualities matter far more to Talarico's backers than to Paxton's. The bulk of Paxton's supporters say they are voting for him because he is the Republican nominee, to oppose Talarico, or to support President Trump.

Talarico gets 5% of voters who identify as Republicans. Among people who say they never vote for Democrats but will this time, he draws 9%. Paxton's advantages come from issues specific to Texas. The Trump administration's deportation program draws more support in Texas than in the most recent CBS News national poll, which helps Paxton. Republicans also say Talarico's policies threaten their culture and way of life, while Democrats say the same about Paxton. In a state where few voters call themselves liberal, nearly half see Talarico as "very liberal," and those voters back Paxton.

The demographics leave Talarico with a narrow path. Texas has far more Republicans than Democrats, so he needs overwhelming support from independents, some vote shift among Republicans, or enough newly activated voters to offset the gap. He also needs strong turnout from younger voters, who back him in large percentages but historically vote at lower rates than older voters. Latino voters, who swung toward Trump in 2024, now mostly back Talarico. They are more likely than voters overall to say higher prices have been a hardship, and most do not think Paxton has the right character to be senator.

In the governor's race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott has an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott also has the backing of 7% of Talarico voters.

CBS News/YouGov interviewed 1,492 registered voters in Texas between Oct. 8 and Oct. 16, 2026. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education using U.S. Census data, and by 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.5 points for likely voters.

The Senate contest is one of several that could shape control of Congress after the midterm elections.