Arkansas Democrats Call Themselves the 'Sleeper Race' as Midterm Map Stretches Into Deep Red Territory

With nine days left before the midterms, Arkansas Democrats are running a long-shot campaign in one of the most conservative states in the country, betting that stubbornly high prices and anti-incumbent anger can make even a deep-red state competitive.

Nearly two out of three Arkansas voters backed President Trump in 2024. Forecasters have not been persuaded that Democrats can change that. The Cook Political Report rates the state's Senate race "Solid Republican" and its Little Rock-based 2nd Congressional District "Likely Republican," even as Senate races in Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Texas are viewed as tossups and the competitive House map reaches deep into conservative territory.

Senate candidate Hallie Shoffner, a multigenerational farmer, is pitching her Arkansas roots over her party label. "We're the sleeper race," she told NPR. "I mean, we're the race that no one's noticed and that no one is going to see coming." She shut down her family's farm in 2025, citing rising input costs and the Trump administration's tariff and trade policies, and that decision pushed her into the race. She has run what she calls an "Arkansas First" campaign and says she has not needed outside air support from national Democratic groups. "I come from a place, a community, that died in my lifetime," she said. "I was the last one left and I felt left behind."

In the 2nd District, Chris Jones has the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which lists him as one of dozens of "Red to Blue" flip targets. He is challenging Rep. French Hill, a longtime incumbent whose district became more conservative after the 2021 redistricting. Jones lost the 2022 governor's race to Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, so he starts with higher name recognition than most challengers. Former DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas have campaigned with him, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear have endorsed him.

Republicans have noticed. They have poured millions of dollars into the Senate race and the 2nd District, along with large get-out-the-vote operations meant to hold off what they see as a rising tide of dissatisfaction with their party.

Jones says the mood is about money. "Folks are hurting. They can't afford gas. They can't afford groceries," he said. He argued that many Arkansans who voted for Trump did so for lower prices, an end to foreign wars and an end to corruption, "particularly with the Epstein files," and that none of that has happened. Shoffner pointed to record diesel prices, the war in Iran and tariffs as reasons voters of all stripes want a change.

Jones also reminded voters how recently the state's politics looked different. "It wasn't but 15 years ago that the entire federal delegation of Arkansas was Democrat," he said. "We're in that same place now." Whether that history repeats on November 3 is another question, and forecasters still rate both races as clear Republican advantages.