2026 Midterm Primaries Deliver Surprises: Trump Endorsee Loses by 23 Votes in North Carolina

WASHINGTON — The 2026 midterm primary season is delivering a series of surprising results that are reshaping the political map ahead of November's general election, as voters in key states register the first concrete electoral judgments of the Trump era's second term. With the Iran war, pharmaceutical tariffs, and an ongoing immigration debate dominating the national conversation, both parties are navigating a volatile environment unlike any midterm cycle in recent memory.

In Illinois, Juliana Stratton won the Democratic Senate primary on a platform centered on immigration enforcement and opposition to Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids that have affected communities across the state. Stratton, a former lieutenant governor, secured the backing of Governor JB Pritzker and is now positioned as a leading Democratic voice in a Senate race that could flip a seat currently held by a Republican. Her victory marked a clear endorsement of a progressive immigration platform by Democratic primary voters in a major industrial state.

In North Carolina, the Republican primary for an open Senate seat delivered one of the night's most dramatic results: State Senate leader Phil Berger — who had earned an explicit endorsement from President Trump — lost his race by just 23 votes to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, a late-entering challenger who ran a ground-level campaign focused on rural economic concerns. The result illustrated the limits of Trump's coattails even within his own party, particularly in suburban and rural communities where farm-economy concerns and the rising cost of goods are weighing on voters.

In Maine, Governor Janet Mills has entered the Democratic primary to challenge incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins — a race that would pit one of the country's most popular governors against one of the Senate's most recognizable moderate Republicans. Collins has survived previous electoral challenges with bipartisan support, but polling shows her vulnerability has increased as the political environment has polarized further since 2020.

Broadly, polling conducted ahead of primary season showed that public opposition to the US-Israel war against Iran has "hardened" — with a majority of voters in competitive districts expressing discomfort with the open-ended military commitment and rising economic costs. Democratic strategists believe the Iran conflict could serve as the defining issue of the 2026 cycle in the same way the Iraq War defined 2006, when Democrats swept the House and Senate. Republicans argue that Trump's framing of the war as a necessary strike against a nuclear-armed adversary will hold up with the party's base — but the North Carolina result suggested that even within Republican primaries, voter priorities are more complex than the national party message assumes.