Europeans Fear Russia Preparing Advanced Drone Deliveries to Iran

European intelligence agencies have identified signs that Russia is preparing to deliver advanced versions of military drones to Iran, in a reversal of the weapons pipeline that saw Tehran supply Moscow with thousands of attack drones for use in the Ukraine war, according to officials briefed on the assessments.

The intelligence, shared among NATO allies in recent days, indicates that Russia has upgraded Iranian-designed Shahed drones with improved guidance systems, longer range, and enhanced electronic warfare resistance, and is now planning to send these enhanced variants back to Iran for use against American and Israeli forces. The development represents one of the most significant examples yet of military technology transfer between the two countries and has alarmed European leaders already grappling with the spillover effects of the Iran conflict.

Three European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because the intelligence assessments are classified, said satellite imagery and signals intelligence have detected preparations at Russian military facilities near Kazan and in the Caucasus region consistent with drone shipment staging. The officials cautioned that deliveries had not yet been confirmed but said the preparations suggested transfers could begin within weeks.

The upgraded drones pose a particular concern because they incorporate lessons Russia learned from deploying the original Shahed variants against Ukrainian air defenses. Russian engineers are believed to have modified the drones' navigation systems to make them more resistant to GPS jamming, added terrain-following capabilities that allow them to fly at extremely low altitudes to evade radar, and improved their warheads for greater destructive effect.

Russia and Iran have deepened their military partnership significantly since the Ukraine war began in February 2022. Iran supplied Russia with thousands of Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 drones, which Moscow rebranded as Geran-2 and deployed extensively against Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets. In return, Russia is believed to have provided Iran with advanced air defense technology, satellite intelligence, and fighter aircraft components.

The potential drone deliveries add a new dimension to the already complex geopolitical landscape surrounding the Iran conflict. European governments are caught between their desire to avoid escalation and their concern that Russian military assistance to Iran could prolong the war and increase the threat to commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, upon which Europe depends for a significant portion of its energy supplies.

French intelligence officials briefed President Emmanuel Macron on the assessments earlier this week, contributing to his increasingly urgent calls for a ceasefire at the G7 summit. German officials said the prospect of Russian weapons flowing to Iran underscored the interconnection between the Ukraine and Iran conflicts, which they argued required a coordinated diplomatic response.

The United States has been aware of the intelligence and has raised the issue directly with Moscow through diplomatic channels, according to a senior American official. Russia has not publicly acknowledged any plans to supply drones to Iran and did not respond to requests for comment.

Military analysts said the improved drones could significantly complicate the air defense challenge facing U.S. and Israeli forces. The original Shahed drones, while effective in large numbers, were relatively slow and predictable, making them vulnerable to interception. Enhanced versions with better countermeasures and flight profiles would be considerably harder to defeat and could force the United States to expend more expensive interceptor missiles per engagement.

The development has strengthened the hand of European officials who argue that economic sanctions against Russia must be tightened rather than relaxed. Several European governments had been exploring the possibility of easing certain sanctions in exchange for Russian cooperation on Iran diplomacy, but the drone intelligence has largely put those discussions on hold.