Memorial Day Gas Prices Hit Four-Year High at $4.56 as Closed Strait of Hormuz Drives Summer Forecast Toward $4.80

American drivers are paying the highest Memorial Day gas prices in four years, with the national average hitting $4.56 a gallon Sunday and GasBuddy forecasting an average of $4.80 across the summer driving season — a direct consequence of the Iran war and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil. The last time Memorial Day weekend prices were this elevated was 2022, when the national average peaked at $4.61 in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"This is a war-driven price environment, full stop," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "Take Iran out of the picture and we'd be looking at a national average in the mid-$3 range right now. The Strait of Hormuz being effectively shut for 12 straight weeks is doing something we have never quite seen in the modern data series — a sustained, structural cut of about 17 million barrels per day of throughput." Brent crude settled at $112.30 a barrel Friday, up roughly 48 percent since the day before U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iran's Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities in late February.

The regional picture is even uglier in pockets. California's statewide average is $5.71 a gallon, with stations in Beverly Hills and downtown Los Angeles posting prices above $7. Nevada and Hawaii cleared $5 last week. The Gulf Coast remains cheapest, with Mississippi averaging $4.07, but even that figure is up more than 90 cents from this point last year. AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said the broader concern for the industry is what summer brings. "If the strait remains closed into July, prices could test the 2022 all-time high of $5.02," she told CBS News. "And if a hurricane hits the Texas refining belt on top of that, that ceiling falls quickly."

The White House has tried to push back, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright announcing Friday that the administration was releasing another 12 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and convening an emergency meeting of major U.S. refiners. But analysts at Goldman Sachs and Rystad Energy both said the additional SPR draw would shave only about 4 to 7 cents off the national average and would not change the underlying supply picture so long as Hormuz traffic remains a fraction of normal. The SPR is now at its lowest level since 1985.

For consumers the squeeze is broader than just the pump. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that headline inflation re-accelerated to 3.8 percent in April, driven primarily by energy costs, and grocery prices climbed at the fastest pace in nearly four years. Spirit Airlines, hammered by both fuel costs and tepid summer bookings, filed for Chapter 11 protection two weeks ago, and Wells Fargo's monthly consumer survey now shows 61 percent of households reporting they are cutting back on groceries to absorb fuel and utility bills. "Memorial Day is supposed to be the celebratory start of summer," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG U.S. "This year, for a lot of households, it is the moment they realize they are going to have to keep choosing what to give up."