Six-State Primary Day Could Reshape Control of Senate as Georgia GOP Fights Three-Way Battle for Ossoff's Seat

Six states head to the polls Tuesday in the largest primary day of the 2026 cycle so far, with Republican-on-Republican contests in Georgia, Democratic-on-Democratic contests in Kentucky and a slate of congressional and legislative fights in Alabama, Idaho, Oregon and Pennsylvania that could shape control of both chambers of Congress.

The marquee race is the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Georgia, where the GOP is locked in a three-way scrum to take on Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff, who is seeking a second term and is unopposed for renomination. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins are battling former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, who has been endorsed by term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp. Public polling has fluctuated within the margin of error for months, and operatives in both parties expect the race to be forced into a June 17 runoff if no candidate clears 50%. Strategists at the National Republican Senatorial Committee privately concede that Ossoff has built a roughly $30 million cash advantage that the eventual nominee will need months to claw back.

In Kentucky, Democrats are choosing a nominee for the seat being vacated by former Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who announced last year he would not seek another term. The crowded Democratic field has produced an unusually competitive primary in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in more than 25 years, but the party sees a narrow opening because of Trump-fatigue among independents and persistent rural economic anxiety. The Republican primary is essentially settled, with Trump-endorsed former state attorney general Daniel Cameron consolidating support after a wave of late endorsements from Sen. Rand Paul and Gov.-elect Andy Barr.

Alabama Republicans are deciding the fate of Rep. Julia Letlow, who narrowly missed avoiding a runoff in last month's first ballot and now faces a head-to-head against state Treasurer John Fleming, a former Trump White House aide. Letlow received a late, full-throated endorsement from Trump, who recorded a robocall that began running statewide on Sunday. In Pennsylvania, both parties are picking nominees for what is expected to be one of the most expensive Senate races in the country, with Democratic Sen. John Fetterman not on the ballot but his political organization heavily invested in the open House seat in the suburban Philadelphia 1st District.

Oregon will hold competitive primaries for governor in both parties — incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek announced earlier this year she would not seek a second term — while Idaho voters will weigh in on a slate of state legislative seats that have become a proxy war between the establishment Republican Party and its hard-right "Liberty" faction. Local boards of election in Boise and Coeur d'Alene confirmed Monday that they had received no credible threats and that polling places would open as scheduled at 8 a.m. Mountain Time.

With a record $1.2 billion in outside spending already deployed across the six states since January, according to AdImpact, Tuesday's results are widely viewed as the cleanest read so far of where the midterm electorate sits. Republican strategists believe the night will validate Trump's continued grip on the party's primary electorate, while Democrats are watching turnout in Atlanta's suburbs and Louisville's collar counties for early evidence that they can reassemble the coalition that delivered them surprise wins in 2024 and 2025.