SpaceX Reports Earnings as a Public Company for the First Time Tuesday, With the Stock 19% Below Its IPO Price

SpaceX will report quarterly results as a publicly traded company for the first time on Tuesday, an unusual moment for a business that spent more than two decades telling outside investors almost nothing and now has to explain itself every 90 days.

The company went public in June and has had a rough eight weeks since. Shares are trading around $110, roughly 19% below the $135 offer price and 51% below the intraday high of $225.64. Short sellers have built positions worth more than $8 billion against the stock. On Thursday, the lockup that has kept insiders from selling expires, releasing more than 911 million shares — roughly $100 billion worth at current prices — into a market that has already decided it overpaid.

Three numbers will determine how Tuesday goes. The first is revenue. SpaceX reported $18.7 billion in annual revenue and a net loss of more than $4.9 billion in the figures disclosed around the IPO. Analysts expect around $6.9 billion for the second quarter, the overwhelming majority of it from Starlink, the satellite broadband network that has quietly become the company's actual business. Starlink subscriber growth is projected at 93% for 2026 — enormous by any normal standard, and a sharp deceleration from 229% in 2025.

The second is the artificial intelligence segment, which generated $818 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2026. SpaceX has been building space-based data centers and continues to develop Grok, its chatbot, and it recently acquired Cursor, an AI coding startup. Investors will want to know whether that spending is a coherent strategy or a distraction from launch and connectivity, and how much of the company's losses it accounts for.

The third is simply whether management offers forward guidance at all. A refusal to forecast would leave the stock trading on narrative at exactly the moment the lockup expiration floods it with supply.

The exploration side of the business — Starship, the lunar lander work, the Mars program — is where the company's valuation story lives and where it loses money. Public markets have generally been unkind to companies that ask for patience on a decade-long timeline while burning billions a year, and SpaceX is now asking for that patience from shareholders who can sell on any given Tuesday rather than from private investors locked in for years.

Retail investors took an unusually large share of the IPO allocation, and thousands of long-tenured employees hold shares that become sellable this week. Their behavior over the next several sessions may matter more to the price than anything management says on the call.

What is not in doubt is the operational business. SpaceX launches more mass to orbit than the rest of the world combined, Starlink has become a default connectivity provider for airlines, ships and rural households in dozens of countries, and no competitor is close on launch cadence. The question Tuesday is narrower and harder: whether a company built on a multi-decade mission can also produce the kind of quarter-by-quarter arithmetic that public markets require.